Conclusions drawn on Exit polls

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         The exit polls were out. Everyone drew conclusions suiting to their convenience. Some political parties who sensed the drawing on the wall are trying to create some alibi to blame election system. Their agony is understandable. Another two days are very long to all of us to decode the exit polls. At the same time, the exit polls can not be totally brush aside. The system is getting improved year by year. All the Survey agencies are not professional but there are certain agencies which are trying to improve regularly. Basing on the results , certain conclusions can be drawn.

1. The 2014 election is basically vote for anti-incumbency against UPA whereas 2019 election is primarily pro-incumbency in favour of Modi
2. Modi factor matters. This election is like Presidential election but candidate is only Modi. So it is a referendum on Modi.
3.Certain aspects influences the voter:
   a) Modi's  narrative is largely accepted by voters except in South.
   b) Pulwama and Balakot incidents galvanised nation and helped in polarisation towards national security.
   c) Strong leader concept went into minds of people
   d) Stable Government Vs Unstable coalition Government 
4.  The Lutyen's Delhi debates Vs non-elite discourse at poor and rural voters communities played a role.
5. Millennial voted beyond identity politics.
6. Contrary to expectations, Modi retained confidence in his original base in Hindi heartland and western India.
7. Further, encroaches into new areas in Eastern parts like Bengal and Odisha.
8. Consolidated and expanded the base in North East.
9. BJP 's majority on its own is good for the Country, otherwise governance will be the victim.
10. Voters maturity exhibited in choosing Modi at Centre and Naveen Patnaik at State in Odisha.
         
The myth of damage to the interests of Regional parties if simultaneous elections are held proved wrong and based on just wrong assumptions.

11. In AP, irrespective of who wins, SCS will be no takers at Centre
12. In Bengal, BJP 's vote share shoot up to mind blowing number whereas CPM 's vote share has come down drastically.
13. In Congress ruled States, except in Punjab, its performance is worse. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Karnataka States which are ruled by Congress, it seems there will be total washout to Congress except handful of seats.

Consequential impact:
 
1 The Karnataka Government may collapse on its own due to contradictions within.
2. The State Governments of MP and Rajasthan are vulnerable
3. More importantly, doubts will cast on leadership 's ability to carry the flag.


  
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