The proposed merger of six parties of the Janata Parivar was never going to be easy, given the fractious nature of its protagonists. It was only the fear of political extinction for two of its members — the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal — that had seen these two parties emerging as the prime drivers of the unity move, so much so that they had agreed to hand the presidency of the party to the Samajwadi Party’s Mulayam Singh.

Now, all the three are facing internal problems that have are coming in the way of forming one outfit — problems that have nothing to do with the technical processes of merging six parties.

The primary reason, of course, is that the Bharatiya Janata Party that stands to lose a great deal through this merger in Bihar, where Assembly elections are due later this year, is working overtime — openly and behind the scenes — to prevent it.

The statistics for the Bihar Assembly elections of 2010 illuminate the BJP’s concerns: in that election, the JD(U)-BJP combine got 115 + 91 seats with 22.6 per cent and 16.46 per cent of the votes. The RJD that had got 18.84 per cent only got 22 seats. If the JD(U) and the RJD contest together, their 41.4 per cent will see them heading the pack. And if the Congress joins the JD(U)-RJD combine, its 8.38 per cent should compensate for the losses that the JD(U) may suffer because of the departure of Jitan Ram Manjhi and his group.
Coal scam

In the RJD today, party supremo Lalu Prasad’s close associate, Prem Gupta is in a spot with his son embroiled in the coal scam: reports suggest that the BJP has offered to bail him out if he ensures that the RJD-JD(U) merger does not go through. The JD(U)’s problems of course relate to Mr. Manjhi’s exit, and his campaigning against Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, describing him as anti-mahadalit.

The BJP has been making overtures to Mr. Manjhi to join up, even as it is poaching from his newly formed party, the Hindustan Awam Morcha.

In the SP that is not involved in this election, differences between Mr. Mulayam Singh and cousin Ram Gopal Yadav have erupted over the possible return of Amar Singh: Mr. Ram Gopal Yadav, who is totally opposed to the idea, announced earlier this month that the merger would take place only after the Bihar polls.
Lalu’s optimism

It is against this backdrop that Mr. Lalu Prasad’s statement on Wednesday assumes significance: he said a decision would be taken on the “merger or adjustment” soon, while rubbishing reports that the talks had got stuck on projecting Mr. Nitish Kumar as chief ministerial candidate — the last, he said, was a story being spread by the BJP-RSS combine. “A merger or adjustment will be decided after assessing all aspects and situation like safeguarding respective party symbols...it’s not a big issue...,” Mr. Prasad said.

“We will take a decision on these issues at an appropriate time,” the RJD chief said “the bigger issue is to defeat BJP and not who will be CM or occupy what post”.

A day after Mr. Prasad’s statement, SP leader Shivpal Yadav — and brother of Mulayam Singh — said, “The Janata Party merger will certainly happen… The BJP is afraid of this merger.”

Indeed, if the merger eventually takes place, it will be the fear of the BJP that will do it.