A day after Pakistan foreign secretary Aizaz Chaudhury acknowledged that the country is developing 'battlefield nukes', the latest Nuclear Notebook report by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reported that Pakistan now has a stockpile of 110-130 warheads, compared with 90-110 in 2011. At this rate, Pakistan could emerge as the fifth largest nuclear power by 2025.
The Nuclear Notebook, one of the most authoritative sources of information on Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, also said that Pakistan continues to expand its nuclear arsenal and production of fissile material.
More importantly, the report by acclaimed nuclear expert Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris confirms that Pakistan is developing short-range nuclear capable missiles to repel any invasion by Indian troops. These could be used also to dominate any low-intensity conflict with India, say Indian security officials.
"One of the most controversial new nuclear-capable missiles in the Pakistani arsenal is the NASR (Hatf-9), a short range, solid-fuel missile with a range of only 60km (37 miles). With a range too short to attack strategic targets inside India, NASR appears intended for battlefield use against invading Indian troops,'' says the report, which will be released in the US on Thursday.
Ahead of the release, Kristensen told TOI that Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons were intended more for use against a large Indian conventional invasion and occupation of Pakistani territory and not any limited anti-terror operation on Pakistani territory.
"That's not to say that such an act would not be seen as a grave violation of Pakistan's sovereignty and met with a forceful conventional military response. But an Indian strike against a terrorist camp would probably be small in size, limited in scope, focused, and brief,'' he said.
"Yet even a brief anti-terrorist strike could easily escalate to a larger conventional confrontation that carries with it the risk and dangers of further escalation to nuclear weapons use,'' he added.
According to the report, with several delivery systems in development, four operating plutonium production reactors, and uranium facilities, Pakistan's stockpile will likely increase over the next 10 years but by how much will depend on many things.
"Two key factors will be how many nuclear-capable launchers Islamabad plans to deploy, and how much the Indian nuclear arsenal grows. Based on Pakistan's performance over the past 20 years and its current and anticipated weapons deployments, the authors estimate that its stockpile could realistically grow to 220 to 250 warheads by 2025, making it the world's fifth largest nuclear weapon state,'' says the report.
"Pakistan appears to have six types of currently operational nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, plus at least two more under development: the short-range Shaheen-1A and medium-range Shaheen-3. Pakistan is also developing two new cruise missiles, the ground-launched Babur (Hatf-7) and the air-launched Raoad (Hatf-8),'' it adds.
According to the report, there are also signs that Pakistan is developing a nuclear weapon -initially probably a nuclear-capable cruise missile - for deployment on submarines.
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